Economic Indicators
The million (or should we say 'billion' now) dollar question is whether or not the United States' economy will stay in it's record 107 month expansion (according to the index of leading indicators) or come out of the boom and take a downturn into a recession. Nobody, including the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan has a crystal ball to provide insight as to what will happen if interest rates are raised, lowered, or left alone. However, Economists have developed a set of indicators to aid in predicting when a recession is about to occur and when the economy is in one. Indicators should not be mistaken for predictors. They are simply forecasting tools, and like any forecast can be misleading. The index of leading indicators that is reported in the popular press shows our economy is still in an expansion. For the purposes of our evaluation of the economy, we chose the Principle Economic Indicators tracked by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau under the Economics and Statistics Administration at the U.S. Department of Commerce. There are thirteen Principle Economic Indicators, and they fall into five major categories: National Output and Income; Orders,
The recent beating that the American public is taking in gasoline prices is undoubtedly the cause for a 4. When viewed as a running average, nearly every quarter since 1995, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures have realized quarterly gains compared to each previous quarter. The base year for the real data is 1997. Data on private residential spending are a source for the GDP residential investment component; nonresidential spending data, for nonresidential investment; and public construction spending data, for structures components within government consumption expenditures and gross investment. This indicator can change if new models or new technologies are introduced that drives consumers to seek replacements for existing items, or if high unemployment or high inflation drives consumers to retain their existing durable goods. economic output has grown at an annual rate of 2. Housing Starts are used to predict the residential investment portion of the GDP. These are considered good leading indicators of home sales and spending in general. If shipments are delayed, deliveries from suppliers may suffer because they don't have the raw materials on hand to fill requests. Furthermore, housing stocks may be built up in anticipation of housing sales rather than housing being replenished after a rise in sales. 7 billion in the third quarter of 1999.
Common topics in this essay:
Census Bureau,
Account Balance,
Consumption Expenditures,
Trade Inventories,
Corporate Profits,
Shipments Inventories,
Inventories Durable,
Personal Income,
Retail Sales,
January February,
retail sales,
consumption expenditures,
trade deficit,
building permits,
personal consumption expenditures,
personal consumption,
housing starts,
consumer spending,
annual rate,
national output income,
personal income,
foreign trade,
principle economic indicators,
bureau economic analysis,
construction spending data,
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Acceptance Essays
