devils lake
Dramatic Fluctuations of Devils Lake, North Dakota:Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-8200 The recent (1992-date) record rise in the level of the Devils Lake, North Dakota, has led to a number of questions as to the nature of regional and global climate variability, and the utility of existing methods for forecasting lake levels and assessing the associated flood risk. A purpose of the work presented here was to explore the connection of the Devils Lake volumetric fluctuations to interannual and longer regional and global climate fluctuations, and to test the performance of recently proposed time series forecasting methods. Wiche and Vecchia (1995), and Osborne (1998) provide background information on the lake, and prior forecasting and climate analysis. Key trends in hydroclimatic variables in the Devils Lake region are first identified and discussed in the context of large-scale hydroclimate variations. Hypotheses as to operative climatic mechanisms that have led to the recent rise in the lake level are developed from this analysis. Two types of long-range lake forecasts are then considered. A foreca
Specifically, they note changes in the seasonality of flow, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation in the region that translate into a secondary October peak and an enhanced summer peak for the flow at Clinton, IA in the recent period. Annual average flow for each water year of the period of record (1874 to 1996) of the Mississippi River at the Clinton, IA gaging station. Analysis of observed chaotic data, Springer Verlag, New York, 272 pp. We compare these forecasts with those of the UMR since they have been demonstrated to be more accurate than those of Devils Lake directly, and provide a useful validation. This combination of factors and the lake's state does not have an analog in the 1905-1999 record. The seasonality of the factors at play in the recent period is different than for the Great Salt Lake and the Devils Lake in the 1980's.
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