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December 7th marks the twentieth anniversary of the Indonesian invasion of East Timor. The consequences of the 1975 invasion have been devastating for the local East Timorese population. Apart from those killed opposing Indonesian security forces, many have died as a result of disease and malnutrition. Out of a total pre-invasion population of nearly 650,000, estimates of the number who have died over the twenty years of the conflict go as high as 200,000.
Aside from the human and economic cost for the East Timorese themselves, the cost for Indonesia has also been enormous. Up to 20,000 military personnel have lost their lives. Many Indonesian families continue to lose loved ones fighting guerrilla insurgents whom the government regularly report as being a spent force. Large sums of s
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Finally, constant international scrutiny and criticism have hampered Indonesia on the international stage.
Burton's theory suggests that if each of the parties were genuinely prepared to negotiate and recognize one another's basic needs, the conflict could be resolved without either party being the loser. One is that the Indonesia will eventually relinquish control due to its own internal inconsistencies. The fact that President Suharto is yet to visit Australia or the United States, attests to the strong feelings the East Timor conflict raises in both countries.
Despite these signs, President Suharto has given little indication that he supports a resolution of the conflict based on negotiations. These views reinforce the belief that independence is inevitable. Would an autonomous East Timor destabilize the Indonesian republic by supporting secessionists in its outlying provinces? Would it serve as an example for other provinces to agitate for greater autonomy or even independence? Another need would be 'face'. For the Indonesians, one basic need is security. This would be satisfied if East Timorese had greater control over their own political destiny. Those students who were born after the invasion soon learn of having lost close relatives as a result of the invasion, and their alienation is only reinforced by the high unemployment. Also, the East Timorese need to be able to celebrate their own national heroes - some of whom died fighting against the Indonesian army.
Any visitor to East Timor, however, will soon realize how misplaced such a view is. In addition, informal discussions by government officials and army officers with internal East Timorese have continued to explore autonomy arrangements that might be acceptable to all parties. East Timorese youths are increasingly bitter over Indonesia's pervasive and repressive control over their lives and the human legacy of the conflict. Another is that the international community will eventually come to the rescue and pressure Indonesia to relinquish control on the basis of past United Nations resolutions.
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