Discovering Past Hurricanes To Determine Hurricane Frequency

When scientists work towards understanding a theory or method, looking into the past proves a useful tool. Studying the past of an area of science can link together other branches of science and their ideas in order to better understand the theory the scientist wants to prove. When predicting hurricane frequency, meteorologists have found it useful to look into the past in order to find the patterns between time and landfalling hurricanes. In order to accomplish this, these scientists must look towards other areas of science in order to produce this timeline of hurricanes.

Many scientists have attempted to forecast the United States hurricane climate through the use of probability. James B. Elsner and Brian H. Bossak focused on three regions of the United States (the East coast, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico) where they studied the historical records of these areas in order to produce a pattern within the amount of landfalling hurricanes (Elsner 4341). They were able to produce statistics, but they realized in their study that the hurricane timeline must extend further back in time in order to produce more accurate results (4348). With more and more scien

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They began their study on Lake Shelby in Alabama where they were able to match sediments to the historical records of category 3 Hurricane Frederic, supporting the validity of their research (334). Bossak found that they could improve upon their statistics in the Bayesian Analysis by using such alternatives to historical records. Although it seems like an unusual method, this process could be quite helpful to the area of

paleotempestology. The National Biological Survey did an experiment in the coastal areas of Mississippi, Alabama, eastern Louisiana, and northwestern Florida.

A specific layer of sediments which has shown evidence of past hurricanes contains pollen. Now these scientists can look at not only short trends in frequency over a couple hundred years, but also look at the long term trends over thousands of years. This brings a challenge to researchers, bringing yet again another obstacle to finding past hurricanes. After Hurricane Andrew, geologists encountered what they think may be another type of sedimentary layer created by hurricanes. They were even able to make a connection between the distance from the eyewall of the hurricane and the tree affected (National Biological Survey). These layers represent years on the United States hurricane climate timeline. The study of lime-mud layers could also be furthered with a little more research. These changes become evident in the sedimentary layers

near the coast either in lakes, marshes, or the ocean itself or in marine and plant life such as coral and trees.

A problem with these alternative ways of discovering prehistoric hurricanes is that some of the methods need to be further researched. Using the method and conclusions from their first experiment, they

were able to successfully identify many strong past hurricanes all across the southern United States.

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