What future for Taiwan ?
On July 9th, 1999, questions about the "one China" policy reached a high point after Lee Teng-Hui, former-President of Taiwan, characterized cross-strait relations as "special state-to-state ties". The United States, through the Clinton Administration answered that Lee's statement was not helpful and reaffirmed the "one China" policy in opposition to "two Chinas". Then, Beijing, in February 21st, 2000, wrote its second White Paper on Taiwan, reaffirming its "peaceful unification" policy, but with new warnings about the risk of conflict. "If a grave turn of events occurs leading to the separation of Taiwan, then the Chinese government will only be forced to adopt all possible drastic measure, including the use of force!"Thus, since these declarations, Taiwan and China are moving in two opposite ways, even if the United States, due to the Taiwan Relation Act, is required to ask more cooperation to the two countries in order to resolve this issue peacefully.Hence, today, the question is: What are probable outcomes - status quo, unification, confederation,, conflict - for Taiwan and China, and how might US interests be affected? If Taiwan becomes independent, what will be the reactions and the US position toward China and Taiwan?
In spite of Beijing's hostile attitude, Taipei has consistently appealed for the resumption of cross-strait communications and consultations. The US is Taiwan's first commercial partner, with 18. The US, the only superpower, has to accepted to deal closer with China, the world's emerging great power. That is why, globalization has allowed China and Taiwan to have deeper commercial links, as well as developping a nationalism feeling in Taiwan's population. In addition, Taiwan has allowed its financial institutions to open offices in China, significantly liberalized the import of mainland products into Taiwan, permitted mainland journalists to come to Taiwan, and improved the status of the mainland spouses of Taiwan residents. That is why the US adopts, since more than 30 years, a neutral stance of non-directly support. And if the US has increasingly voiced its support for the cross-strait dialogue since the 1990's, it is only because they have found some economic interests to act closier with China and Taiwan due to globalization !What I would like to point out here, is the US has the same policy, goodwill towards Taiwan issue. My point is the US does not only want to respect their engagement through the TRA in this arms sales dilemma. Thus, due to the China's deep involment in globalization and the US policy including arms sales towards Taiwan, on one hand, China has become strategically interdependent, its economy has raised dramatically as well as political cost to Beijing of using military force to resolve the Taiwan issue. The US is really interested in the TUFTA, due to the fact the island is their 5th customer in agricole sector. This point has been well understood by China and the US since a few years (for instance, their cooperation to resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons program issue).
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