We have been following the U.S. Leading Economic Index for one year, starting in October of 2003, and ending in October of 2004. The following will hopefully help you to understand why this specific indicator either rose or fell in each particular month. It will also link the graphical information to the economic influences that may have caused such changes.
             The press release for October 2003 stated that the index increased by 0.4 percent in October. One of the reasons that the index had increased throughout this month is the position we held in Iraq. A website (http://www.worldmonitor.info) stated that on October 16, 2003 in Iraq the UN Security Council passed a resolution setting up a multinational force under US leadership and calling on the Iraqi Governing Council to produce by the 15th of December a timetable for drafting a constitution and holding elections. This website obtained its information from Reuters. The position held in Iraq by the United States caused the index for October 2003 to increase.
             Again the U.S. Leading Economic Index increased for the month of November 2003. The press release for November stated an increase of 0.3 percent. Similarly to October, the index has increased because of happenings in Iraq. Though the website states that Reuters reported 74 soldiers being killed throughout the month, a study done by the Psychological Research Center of Baghdad University had shown that 71.5% of Iraqis thought the US occupation in Iraq was necessary at leas for a while. The president of Iraq had also stated that a government would be selected by May in hopes of a constitution being written and democratic elections being held by the end of 2005. Even though we were sacrificing some of our own men, we were making positive progress in Iraq and this helped lead to an increase in the index.
             The leading index for December 2003 stood at 114.3, which is an increase of .2 percent from November and .5 percent from Oc...