autoregressive time series model that incorporates model and parameter uncertainty. We conclude that direct applications of existing time series analysis methods are not well suited for the development of long-range probabilistic forecasts of Devils Lake. The recent trends of Devils Lake are consistent with large-scale changes seen elsewhere. However, whether these changes are part of the natural long-term variability of climate or represent a changed climate due to human influence remains inconclusive. Consequently, while we are able to relate the recent Devils Lake trend to causative hydroclimatic factors, we are unable to confidently predict the long-term future levels of the lake. Only qualitative remarks are offered to characterize the uncertainty associated with using the past as a guide to the future of Devils Lake.
             Trends in Local, Regional and Hemispheric Hydroclimatic Variables
             Like most closed basin lakes, the Devils Lake exhibits dramatic fluctuations (Figure 1) over decadal and longer periods, that derive from climatic fluctuations. There is a limited literature (e.g., Lall and Mann, 1995, Mann et al, 1995, Pusc, 1993, Wiche et al., 1986) diagnosing the climatic causes of such fluctuations. The contributing drainage area of such lakes varies with climate state. The chain lakes above Devils Lake and other depressions store water during dry periods, but contribute runoff during protracted wet periods. This change in drainage area may be a key explanation for the dramatic changes in the Lake's volume, subsequent to moderate changes in the climate signal. Notable increases occur in 1950's, 1970, 1980's, and the late 1990's. These periods are also important at the regional streamflow stations.
             It is useful to first look at the annual cycle of monthly changes in the Devils Lake volume (Figure 2), to motivate the search for trends in monthly precipitation, temperature, Sea Level Pressure (SLP), and clo...