Perspectives on Global Telecommunications
             According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the 1996/97 World Telecommunications Development Report, it would take the gift of second sight and more to predict the course of the telecommunications industry over the next few years. One thing, however, is certain: the industry in 2008 will bear little resemblance to the telecom business of today.
             Most, if not all, of the world's national carriers will have been fully privatized. Competition will be open and controlled by global regulation. The telephone network will carry more minutes of data than voice. All this will come about because of advances in technology, the globalization of business and the liberalization of markets. All three are contributing to a profound increase in competition in an industry which for most of its existence has enjoyed co-operation rather than rivalry. 1998 proved to be pivotal year. January 1, 1998 was the date set by the World Trade Organization for the liberalization of telecom markets throughout much of the world. It was also the date on which the European Union's leading economies had agreed to allow full competition in voice and data services. The demand for telecom services will grow strongly, driven by an increase in data transmission chiefly associated with the Internet. But costs are falling and carriers are peering anxiously into a future in which the only certainties are tougher competition and drastically lower margins. An example is interconnection rates, the price an operator charges rival operators to connect to its network. These are lower in the UK, where there has been full competition for some five years, than anywhere else in Europe. In New Zealand, where a liberal market has been accompanied by an absence of regulation, inter-connection charges are five times the UK rate on a comparable basis. The single most important development in the past few months, however, has
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